Britain posted its biggest August
budget deficit on record, heaping pressure on Chancellor of the
Exchequer George Osborne as the recession hits tax revenue and
pushes up spending on welfare.
The shortfall excluding government support for banks was
14.4 billion pounds ($23.5 billion), the Office for National
Statistics said in London today. The median of 21 forecasts in a
Bloomberg News survey was for a deficit of 15 billion pounds.
Tax revenue rose 1.8 percent in August from a year earlier and
government spending climbed 2.5 percent.
The figures highlight the damage being wrought by weaker-
than-expected economic output this year. Economists say Osborne
is set to miss his self-imposed deadline to start bringing down
debt in three years, leaving him to choose between abandoning
the goal or announcing fresh austerity measures. Bank of England
Governor Mervyn King said yesterday it may be "acceptable" to
miss the target if it was because of the weak economy.
"If you extrapolate from today's figures, we will be
somewhere between 10 billion and 35 billion higher than expected
for the year," said George Buckley, an economist at Deutsche
Bank AG in London. "The deficit is only fractionally higher
than last year, so in some ways it's good news, but we're still
looking at a big overshoot."
The pound extended its advance against the dollar after the
report and was trading at $1.6277 as of 11:08 a.m. in London, up
0.4 percent on the day. The yield on the 10-year gilt was 4
basis points higher at 1.84 percent.
King's Backing
The deficit in the first five months of the fiscal year
that started in April widened to 59 billion pounds from 48.4
billion pounds a year earlier. Economists say Osborne may miss
his 120 billion-pound full-year target by as much as 10 billion
pounds, according to the average of independent forecasts
compiled by the Treasury. The statistics office revised down its
estimate of the 2011-12 deficit to 119.3 billion pounds from 125
billion pounds.
With the economy predicted to shrink this year for the
first time since 2009, economists say Osborne may be forced to
either scrap his plan to see net debt falling as a share of the
economy from 2015 or risk a public and political backlash by
making further spending cuts.
King said that Osborne's fiscal plan "did allow for the
fact that if the economy were to grow slowly, then taxes would
not rise as quickly and spending would be higher so the deficit
would be bigger."
On potentially missing the debt target, he said: "If it's
because the economy's grown slowly, yes, indeed, and that was
always part of the plan."
Osborne's Choice
Osborne would have to decide whether letting the target
slip would alarm financial markets and drive up borrowing costs
or be seen as a sensible move given the fragility of the
economy.
The chancellor is due to make a statement to Parliament on
Dec. 5 after receiving revised fiscal and economic forecasts
from his budget watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility.
The OBR will also say whether there is still a realistic chance
of erasing the structural budget deficit by 2017, although some
leeway is provided as the five-year rolling target moves to 2018
next year.
The Treasury cautioned in a statement against trying to
second-guess the OBR given the economic uncertainties. While the
government is sticking to its spending plans, tax receipts have
barely grown so far this year. The OBR had predicted an increase
of almost 4 percent for the year as a whole. August's revenue
figure was depressed by a 2.1 percent drop in corporation taxes.
Debt Pile
A cash measure showed the public finances in surplus by 9.6
billion pounds, a figure boosted by publicly controlled banks.
The central government balance was in deficit by 8.5 billion
pounds.
Net debt climbed to 1.04 trillion pounds, or 66.1 percent
of gross domestic product. The OBR's March forecasts showed net
debt peaking at 76.3 percent of GDP in 2014-15.
Britain's economy shrank for a third straight quarter in
the three months through June, fueling accusations from the
opposition Labour Party that the pace of fiscal consolidation is
making things worse. Osborne says his program has helped to
insulate Britain from the euro-area debt crisis and push down
borrowing costs.
'Black Cloud'
King said that there are signs of a modest recovery in the
U.K., though he cautioned that a "black cloud of uncertainty"
remains, and a lot will depend on global developments.
Global finance chiefs are scheduled to gather in Tokyo next
month for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund
and World Bank. The IMF will cut its projections for world
growth by "a few decimal points," Hoe Ee Khor, an assistant
director in the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, said on a
conference call with reporters yesterday.
The most recent IMF forecast, released in July, projected
global growth of 3.5 percent in 2012 and 3.9 percent in 2013.
Updated forecasts are scheduled for Oct. 9, before the Tokyo
meetings.
The World Trade Organization trimmed its prediction today
for the increase in global commerce in 2012 to 2.5 percent, from
3.7 percent five months ago. The IMF cut its estimate for South
Korea's 2012 growth to 3 percent from 3.25 percent.
The Bank of Japan (8301) downgraded its assessment for the world's
No. 3 economy this week, saying growth had "come to a pause."
It also followed the U.S. Federal Reserve in expanding stimulus.
Data yesterday showed Japan's exports fell 5.8 percent in
August from a year earlier, the third straight decline, on
weakness in demand from the European Union and China. Imports
slid 5.4 percent.
In Europe, house prices in the Netherlands dropped by 8
percent in August from a year earlier as uncertainty persisted
about a further cutting-back of mortgage tax breaks. Values also
fell 8 percent in July, the biggest drop since the index started
in 1995. A report from Belgium is forecast to show that
businesses there became less pessimistic this month, according
to a Bloomberg News survey.
To contact the reporter on this story:
{Gonzalo Vina} in London at
gvina@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
James Hertling at
jhertling@bloomberg.net
U.K. Posts Record August Deficit as Tax Revenue Falls: Economy
Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
Economists say Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne may miss his 120 billion-pound full-year target by as much as 10 billion pounds, according to the average of independent forecasts compiled by the Treasury.
Economists say Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne may miss his 120 billion-pound full-year target by as much as 10 billion pounds, according to the average of independent forecasts compiled by the Treasury. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
Source:
http://www.ezonearticle.com/2012/09/21/u-k-posts-record-august-deficit-as-slump-hits-tax-revenue/
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